Leading Through Economic Uncertainty: How Great Founders Stay Calm When the Market Doesn’t
With the S&P 500 sliding, inflation sticking around like an unwanted co-founder, and new tariff policies creating whiplash across supply chains, it’s understandable that startup leaders are asking, “How the hell do I plan in this?”
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Uncertainty is your job.
Great founders don’t wait for the market to calm down; they build calm into their teams, even when things are stormy outside. Here's how.
Start with Yourself
The key to leading during times of uncertainty is being a “non-anxious presence.” The great Thomas Friedman coined this term and popularized it in his seminal book, A Failure of Nerve. In a chaotic and chronically anxious world, simply being a calm anchor point changes the dynamics around you.
This means you need to do your deep work first. Whether this is meditation, prayer, therapy, deep exercise, journaling, coaching, or (probably best) a combination of all of these, you must work out your anxiety and get to a place of inner calm (at least moderately so). Then, you can follow the steps below with a clear mind and communicate with a clear heart. Your team, your customers, and your investors will trust you more.
Then, Do Scenario Planning
Founders tend to avoid scenario planning because it feels like busywork, or worse, like manifesting doom. However, a simple 3-tier model (best, realistic, worst) built around your current cash position can give you clarity and calm.
Pro Tip: Plan for the worst, operate in the realistic, aim for the best. And communicate which mode you’re in with your team; ambiguity erodes trust.
Hold a “Founder Forecast” Friday
Every week, hold a 30-minute company-wide update; even if it’s just you and two engineers. Be transparent about what you're seeing, what’s changing, and what your current 30-day focus is. Repetition builds trust. Especially in uncertain markets, your job as CEO is to repeat clarity until people stop asking, “Are we okay?”
Pro Tip: Be prepared for hard questions about your leadership or the business context. If you respond to the first really hard question without anxiety or defensiveness, then your team will trust you with more hard questions. That is the game changer for establishing group confidence.
Understand What Investors Are Actually Looking For
In shaky markets, investors lean harder into founder psychology. Can you manage risk without panicking? Can you communicate a coherent vision even when the market doesn't support your category this quarter? Founders who are grounded, not grandiose, are getting term sheets right now. VCs don’t need superheroes, they need high-integrity adults who can course-correct in real time. Investors most want to know that you are not going to run out of cash in the short term.
Pro Tip: Keep your big vision, but be extremely clear about how you will conquer your beachhead market. Demonstrate a clear and compelling plan to increase revenue and profitability. Check out: Understanding the Investor Mindset for more insights.
Don’t Lead Alone
We’re seeing more early-stage founders quietly burn out because they think they need to hold it all together. You don’t. Whether it’s a coach, a peer group, or just someone outside your cap table, talk through the hard stuff. Don’t lead from isolation. Check out: The Immense Burden of Being a Founder for more insights.
The bottom line is: markets will go up. Markets will go down. Your job is to build a leadership rhythm that outlasts the volatility.
If you want more info or need guidance for you and your team, schedule a call with us!